I can't help but think there is a change in the balance of power in the world centered on Beirut. For some time now, Hezbollah has maintained its street demonstrations along with Michel Aoun's FPM with little change in the political situation. It began to appear as if PM Siniora's government was going to be able to survive the opposition and last until this summer's election for the presidency. Now, something is different. I see a dark, thick fog moving in from the north.

The November elections in the US removed the party from Congress that had pushed Syria and Iran as well as the UN for progress on UNSC Resolution 1559 and the investigation into the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq al-Hariri. France will get a new president in April and the UK a new Prime Minister in May. It was beginning to look as if Tehran might outlive the pressure against it for the enrichment of uranium and Damascus for its suspected involvement in interference in Lebanon. Then, things changed.

Saddam Hussein was hanged in a way that further demeans the image of the US in the world and the credibility of the current US President. Iran and Syria old nemesis has been removed. The US is sending substantial reinforcements into Iraq because it is unable to control the situation there making it near impossible for any further action in another country. Nothing could be better for Iran and Syria. Israel is still licking its wounds from its embarrassing defeat this summer against Hezbollah and the Prime Minister is now being investigated on corruption charges. Israel is in no shape to take military action right now. France and Britain won't risk that in the midst of political changes for fear of handing control to opposition parties. Advantage: Iran and Syria.

Now, in a surprising and wholly unexpected move, Russia and China actually vetoed a US resolution in the UN Security Council. The act, to condemn human rights abuses in Burma, was the first joint veto of the like since 1972.The year before a large scale Middle East war. Russia has found its gusto again through its gas and oil resources. It has bullied its Near Abroad (former Soviet states) with fuel price hikes of 200-300% including supplies that feed a large portion of Europe. Vladimir Putin is nearing the twilight of his term as well and wants Russia to return to its great power status of the past. Today we hear that Russia has transferred anti-aircraft artilleries to Iran. This after US Vice President Dick Cheney and the White House made not so vague threats of military action against Iran for its refusal to stop enriching uranium and supporting Hezbollah in Lebanon. Russia is also the current President of the UN Security Council and has heard that there are ten states that are not fully cooperating with the Brammertz investigation into the assassination of former PM Hariri. Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, has requested that Brammertz name the ten countries. Mr. Lavrov said it was only fair since Syria had been accused of not cooperating, that all countries accused should be named publicly. For some reason, France, the US, and the UK rejected the proposal in an old, nearly forgotten East-West split.

Russia may be a bear coming out of hibernation following a long winter. She has found new strength and determination. She is now willing to utilize her veto power against the US and its severely delegitimized president in order to regain lost credibility herself. Russia has also threatened to veto any resolution calling for the independence of Kosovo. With Russia newly emboldened and the three Western powers at the Security Council in the midst of political upheaval and change, Syria and Iran have little to be concerned about. Their old Cold War ally has come back to their side and would, when presented, veto any Security Council Resolution calling for the formation of an international tribunal to prosecute those responsible for Hariri's assassination. Then, the July War, the Cedar Revolution, and the death of MP Pierre Gemayel would have been entirely in vain and justice would once again be evaded in a thick, dark fog from the north regards of Moscow.